Rule #1. Bankroll Management
The chase can get hairy quick, but we wouldn't bet it if it wasn't profitable season over season. The only way you will beat the house is by sticking to your unit size and following our systems.
MLB & NHL
Here's an overview of our MLB & NHL models.
The rest of our models are proprietary, but we're always willing to answer more questions in our slack chatroom.
Fade bad teams having poor seasons.
Bet good teams that win games.
Tail average/good teams when the line and opportunity presents itself.
Between 20% and 40% of the time, these systems may match on the same team on certain days.
The End Game
We bet strictly money lines, and our bet amounts are to win. For example game 1 opens at -200, we would risk 2 units to win 1. We bet to recoup our loses, and win a unit on top of that. When a team wins, that chase is completed. However, if they lose a certain amount of games in a row, chasing them is no longer profitable long term, and we cut our loses. This is extremely important to having profitable seasons YoY.
If a team losses game 1, we move to game 2 and wait for the modeled criteria. Lose game 2, and move to game 3, etc. Each chase lasts a maximum of 4 games, however the teams we are betting must fit specific benchmarks in our models, if they don't, we don't bet the game. We then wait until the data criteria is met before continuing the chase.
"Martingale betting systems dont work."
As explained above, we're not betting conescutive games just 'hoping' to recoup our loses. We use complex data metrics to determine our plays, sometimes they're consective games and sometimes we wait weeks in between a game 1 and game 2.
4 Game Chase Example
We provide spreadsheets that will track all your bets, with your unit size, and tell you exactly what amount to risk. We also have a slack chatroom where hundreds of members bet the games, ask questions and interact with each other on a daily basis.
Here is a 4 game chase example:
|$50 unit starting bet||Outcome||Risking / Result|
|Game 1 (-155)||Loss||$77 / -$77|
|Game 2 (-145)||Loss||$185 / -$262|
|Game 3 (-190)||Loss||$593 / -$855|
|Game 4 (-165)||Win||$1,495 / +$1,495|
You need to be able to place every bet. Meaning, odds for a game 4 could be -220, and if you started with a $50 unit, you could be risking well over $2,000 to win back all your losses from that chase, plus the original $50 bet you made game 1, and that’s just one chase. We most certainly will have other chases going on that you will need to bet.
Don’t be blinded by our +200 chase record and start off with a unit size that is above your bankroll. If you stick to just a $25 unit size all season, and we finish +150 units, that's $25 x 150u for a profit of $3,750. It takes bankroll management and profitable data models to beat the house.
“If you’re prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why, in language that a fifth grader could understand.”
The Daily Card
The chase models are just MLB & NHL. We also release 1 - 3 unit plays for all other major sports. These non chase plays just add to our long term profitability. It also gives us more action, who doesn't love action?
Again, all plays are documented every night for 100% transparency. You can view them all here.
Checkout our twitter for a daily recap of all our plays.