Our strategy is similar to the martingale betting system, but more advanced by leveraging years worth of data to drive profit season over season.
The Chase is a progressive money-line betting strategy for NHL and MLB. We utilize several match-up variables, such as win percentage, previous game margin, opening & closing odds, home vs. away and game number.
Our data-backed systems have been profitable year over year for last 5 years.
MLB & NHL
Fade bad teams having poor seasons.
Bet good teams that win games.
Tail average/good teams when the line and opportunity presents itself.
Between 20% and 40% of the time, these systems may match on the same team on certain days.
The Four Game Chase.
Each chase lasts a maximum of 4 games. The teams we are betting must fit specific variables in our models, if they don't, we do not bet the game. Instead, we then wait until the matchup criteria is met before continuing the chase. In other words, sometimes we bet consecutive games and sometimes we wait weeks in between before ‘following’ or ‘fading’ a team again. This is extremely important to having profitable seasons YoY.
The objective of the Chase is to win +1.0 unit on every chase opened. Once a team “enters the chase”, we start them on Game 1. If a team loses game 1, we move to game 2 and wait for the modeled criteria. If the team loses game 2, and move to game 3, etc. When we bet subsequent games we are betting to recoup our loses, and win a +1.0 unit on top of that. We typically have about 15 newly opened chases per week.
When a team wins, that chase is closed and we profit +1.0 unit. Most of the time, a chase will close on a Game 1, 2 or 3 and we walk away happy one unit richer. But occasionally (3 out of every 100 chases we open), we will get to the Game 4.
* This is a high-level explanation, our model is proprietary with several layers of complexity.
We are here to guide you
We provide detailed spreadsheets that will track all your bets, with your unit size, and tell you exactly what amount to risk.
We also have a Slack chatroom where hundreds of our members bet the games, ask questions and interact with each other on a daily basis. It is a very fun community.
We release our bets around 8am EST daily and we recommend you place every bet we release in order to maximize your profitability.
Manage your bankroll. Our objective is to grow your capital at high rates of return over long periods of time. Don’t be blinded by our outstanding chase record and start off with a unit size that is above your bankroll. Start low and get your bearings.
A +150 unit season at a $25 unit is a profit of $3,750 ($25 x 150u). It takes bankroll management and our models to beat the house.
You don't have to be a mathematician to like these numbers. These are total units won in each of our NHL and MLB chases.
Please note that Game 4’s are rare, only 3/100 chases get there and historically those games have a +85% win percentage. This means we already closed 97 other chases and banked our +1.0 unit on each.
To put it simply, while there will be turbulence, the risk of the plane itself going down is unlikely.
Below is an example of how a 4 game chase progresses to recoup +1.0 unit. It is important to remember that if this team won during an earlier game, this chase would have been closed and a profit of +1.0 unit would have been recorded.
|$50 unit||Outcome||Risking / Result|
|Game 1 (-155)||Loss||$77 / -$77|
|Game 2 (-145)||Loss||$185 / -$262|
|Game 3 (-190)||Loss||$593 / -$855|
|Game 4 (-165)||Win||$1,495 / +$1,495|
“The safest way to double your money is to fold it over once and put it in your pocket, and bet the chase.”
The Daily Card
The Chase isn’t for everyone. We also release 1 to 3 unit plays on all major sports. These plays are most likely the method you are more familiar with. These non-chase plays just add to our long-term profitability and are built around the same data-driven philosophy as The Chase. It also gives us more action, and who doesn't love action?
Again, all plays are documented every night for 100% transparency. You can view them all here.
Check out our twitter for a daily recap of all our plays.